The Concept of Sample Size

Wouldn’t it be nice if your mortgage business had a 100% conversion rate on your mortgage leads? While you’re in Fantasyland, why not assume that all conversions to sales take place within a week?

Uh-oh. Let’s return to reality.

It takes time to evaluate mortgage leads, and not all mortgage leads result in successful loans. You’ve learned this through your own efforts. Over time, you’ve refined your sales techniques to optimize your lead conversions.

Keep this in mind when you evaluate new sources of mortgage leads. A proper evaluation takes time – and a solid plan.

Look for Established Sources

Consider the reputation and the longevity of your potential mortgage lead sources. Over the long term, a mortgage lead provider who forwards poor leads won’t stay in business for long – regardless of how cheap their services are.

If a company has been in business for ten years selling mortgage leads, the odds are good that they’re doing things right.

Establish Your Sample Plan

You already know your typical conversion rates and times, so you should have a baseline of expectations. Review your existing results through the eyes of a statistician. How large of a random sample would you have to pull to accurately assess your current success?

Whether it’s 50, 500, or 5,000 leads, set up a sampling plan based on your current rates to serve as a benchmark. Remember that, statistically, smaller sample sizes produce smaller confidence levels in the results. Choose your overall sampling level by balancing expense with expectations and the confidence level that you require in order to feel comfortable with your choice. Then set a realistic timeframe that’s tied to your chosen sample size.

Don’t Forget External Factors

Market factors can change quickly and affect your ability to close a mortgage deal. Break up your purchases over a period of weeks to smooth out the effect of external factors on your sample results, but keep enough leads in your weekly purchase to make the results relevant.

Exclusive Doesn’t Mean Faster

If you are paying for exclusive leads, you should expect a better return on investment. It’s reasonable to expect a higher conversion rate but remember that it still takes time to evaluate the worth of your purchase.

The greater expense may tempt you to purchase a smaller sample of leads or fewer batches to evaluate the lead source. Do so at your own risk, because you’re basing a more expensive decision on a smaller sample size.

Patience Is Required

If you’re evaluating new sources of mortgage leads, you’re doing it for a reason. Maybe you’ve reached a point where you can’t rely on generating your own leads, or you’re not satisfied with your current source. In either case, you’re going to want results as soon as possible.

Resist the urge to draw hasty conclusions. Otherwise, you’ll be stuck in a fruitless cycle, churning through potentially good sources due to a lack of patience. Have a solid sampling plan and a yardstick by which to measure results – then stick to that plan. Evaluate results, and then re-evaluate to see how things have changed. You want to keep setting the bar higher and higher, so that you’re always beating your best.